Evaluation of CR-POSSUM Original ACPGBI and New ACPGBI Scoring Systems for Colorectal Cancer Surgery
O.F. Ozkan, A. Guner, U. Kaya, C. Kece, E. Reis, S. KesiciOriginal article, no. 6, 2014
Purpose: To compare the Colorectal Physiological and OperativeScore for enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity(Cr-POSSUM) with the original Association of Coloproctologyof Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI) and new ACPGBIscoring systems for their ability to predict mortality aftercolorectal cancer surgery.Methods: We retrospectively calculated the Cr-POSSUM,original ACPBGI and new ACPGBI scores of 105 patientswho underwent colorectal cancer surgery. Data wereobtained from patients’ medical records and operative notes.Mortality was defined as death within 30 days of surgery.Scores were validated by assessing their calibration anddiscrimination. Calibration was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and corresponding calibration curves. Thediscriminative capability of the models was evaluated usingreceiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.Results: The observed mortality rate was 4.8 %. The overallestimated risks of death of the Cr-POSSUM, originalACPGBI, and new ACPGBI scores were 9.92%, 7.35% and4.20%, respectively. The results of areas under the curve(AUC) for Cr-POSSUM, original ACPGBI and new ACPGBI scores were 0.792, 0.844 and 0.801 respectively.Conclusions: The Cr-POSSUM, original ACPGBI and newACPGBI scoring sytems are accurate in determiningmortality rates and for predicting the risks of death inindividual patients. The new and original ACPGBI scoringsystems performed slightly better than the Cr-POSSUMscoring system.
